A definitive end to the coronavirus pandemic isn’t in the cards, according to top doctors, but surges will become more mild and cases will lead to less hospitalizations, which is already happening thanks to vaccines and treatments.
“We are never going to get to a level of immunity in this population where this virus just disappears on the map,” said Dr. David Dowdy, associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health during a Wednesday virtual briefing.
Dowdy said, “There is never going to be a pandemic ‘mission accomplished’ day.”
Despite the disappointing news that coronavirus is here to stay, it’s not all bad. Dowdy said we will continue to see local outbreaks and winter surges for many years or lifetimes, but as immunity increases, cases will become more mild and won’t lead to the awful packed hospitals and morgues that were once a grim reality.
A winter coronavirus surge is already starting in the Northeast, but states are in a much better place than last year’s record-breaking infection numbers.
“Many businesses were operating at partial capacity and many gatherings had strict size limits. Yet COVID-19 cases were rising more than twice as fast as they are today. Now, we have extremely safe vaccines with long-lasting effectiveness against serious disease,” Dowdy explained.
He said a fifth coronavirus wave is likely, but it won’t cause nearly as many deaths and hospitalizations thanks to many tools including vaccines, booster shots, vaccination in children and anti-viral medications, which Dowdy said could be a real game-changer.
Two different coronavirus pills made by Merck and Pfizer have the potential to decrease the risk of severe disease by up to 90% and could be authorized for use soon, which could add yet another layer of protection against the deadly disease that has halted regular life for nearly two years.
Despite high vaccination rates, Massachusetts has not been immune to the recent uptick in cases.Dr. Shira Doron, infectious disease physician at Tufts Medical Center, said numbers in the Bay State are creeping upward.
“This is a real phenomenon, this is the seasonality that this virus seems to be settling into,” Doron told the Herald.
However, Doron said even if all the trends looked exactly like last winter’s surge, things will be different. “This is a much safer time for everybody and this is a much safer time for hospital capacity.”
Doron, like Dowdy, said there really is no pandemic endgame, though.
“This is probably it. This is probably as good as it gets. This is probably our future. Ebbs and flows of case counts…we need to figure out how to move forward and be OK with it,” Doron said.
0 comments:
Post a Comment