The potential for massive turnover at the top of Pac-12 football programs has plunged since our last assessment of the landscape, with four schools officially securing their coaches and a few more seemingly set for 2022.
As of this moment, only one vacancy exists (Washington).
Our assessment below is listed from most likely to least likely to experience a vacancy (and alphabetically with ties).
Here we go …
*** Washington
Coach: vacant
Comment: With Florida (Billy Napier) and USC (Lincoln Riley) locked up, the Huskies should have a better feel for their candidate pool and could finish the search in the next 24 hours. Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and Fresno State’s Kalen DeBoer are the names most often associated with the vacancy, although there are assuredly a few more on the list. If Campbell agrees, it’s a major win for the Huskies, who are undoubtedly feeling more pressure in the aftermath of USC’s move. DeBoer is well regarded but has only been a major college head coach for two seasons.
Chance of vacancy: 100% (last week: 100%)
*** Utah
Coach: Kyle Whittingham
Comment: We continue to believe that a victory in the Pac-12 championship game — and Utah’s first-ever trip to the Rose Bowl — could prompt Whittingham to retire. He has endured the deaths of two players; he turned 62 recently and has been on the job since 2005; he has loads of grandkids in the Salt Lake City area; and he just became the winningest coach in school history.
Chance of vacancy: 55% (last week: 65%)
*** Oregon
Coach: Mario Cristobal
Comment: The chances of Cristobal departing have dipped with the Florida job filled. However, his alma mater, Miami, remains vacant, and there are desirable openings elsewhere (LSU, Oklahoma). Plus, Cristobal’s task just got significantly more daunting with Riley taking over USC: The recruits won’t flow from Southern California to Eugene like they have in recent years. But if Cristobal stays put, he might have a hire to make. Offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead is reportedly a candidate for the head coaching job at Akron.
Chance of vacancy: 30% (last week: 35%)
*** Cal
Coach: Justin Wilcox
Comment: The likelihood of Wilcox leaving has dropped significantly, partly because Cal’s on-field performance this season makes his candidacy a difficult sell for any school in the market for a coach to revitalize its program. However, the carousel hasn’t stopped spinning, and our estimation of Wilcox’s frustration level with Cal’s bureaucracy hasn’t changed.
Chance of vacancy: 10% (last week: 45%)
*** Arizona State
Coach: Herm Edwards
Comment: There was never a chance that athletic director Ray Anderson would dismiss his friend and former business partner unless the NCAA investigation required it. Apparently, ASU is confident that won’t happen because Anderson reportedly told the players Edwards would be back for 2022. Meanwhile, Edwards has the energy and desire to return, so retirement is off the table. That said, we are allowing for the possibility that the investigation leads to a place over the coming months that makes the status quo untenable.
Chance of vacancy: 5% (last week: 75%)
*** UCLA
Coach: Chip Kelly
Comment: At this point, we expect the Bruins to bring Kelly back for the 2022 season. They have eight wins, momentum for the first time in years, and a desire for stability. What could spark a vacancy? One of two developments: A conflict with the administration over the future role of defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro, or an offer from another school that appeals to Kelly.
Chance of vacancy: 1% (last week: 40%)
*** Stanford
Coach: David Shaw
Comment: No change to Shaw’s status: He isn’t getting fired, and he isn’t likely to leave for an NFL gig. (Our theory: He would want to leave his alma mater in better shape.) The situation seemingly demands changes to the coaching staff, but Shaw has always been loath to fire assistants, believing it’s an excuse and doesn’t solve the root problems.
Chance of vacancy: 0.1% (last week: 0.1%)
*** Arizona
Coach: Jedd Fisch
Comment: Despite the worst full season in program history, Fisch’s return has never been in question — he’ll have at least three and perhaps four years to turn the Wildcats around. However, he does need a defensive coordinator with Don Brown leaving for the UMass job. The Wildcats are worse off without him, and the conference lost one of its best nicknames. Adios, Dr. Blitz.
Chance of vacancy: 0% (last week: 0%)
*** Colorado
Coach: Karl Dorrell
Comment: There will be no change at the top in Boulder. After three head coaches in 18 months, the Buffaloes picked Dorrell partly because of the stability he offered. But there are changes below Dorrell, who fired his offensive line coach during the season and just dismissed offensive coordinator Darrin Chiaverini. More moves could be coming.
Chance of vacancy: 0% (last week: 0%)
*** Oregon State
Coach: Jonathan Smith
Comment: The combination of Smith’s low-level compensation, his success this season and the potential for marketplace interest — hello, Washington — left the Beavers with zero choice: They announced a contract extension for Smith through the 2027 season. The salary wasn’t revealed, but we assume Smith has been bumped to the $4 million range.
Chance of vacancy: 0% (last week: 10%)
*** USC
Coach: Lincoln Riley
Comment: Monumental hire for the Trojans and the Pac-12 on multiple fronts, including this: It brings serious sizzle to a conference that has sorely lacked star power with its players and coaches. Riley reportedly will bring respected defensive coordinator Alex Grinch with him from Norman. Grinch has loads of Pac-12 experience, having made his reputation under Mike Leach at WSU.
Chance of vacancy: 0% (last week: 100%)
Washington State
Coach: Jake Dickert
Comment: All signals pointed to Dickert being offered the permanent job if WSU won the Apple Cup, and the Cougars wasted little time: The deal was announced within 24 hours of the victory. In addition to the continuity provided, the internal promotion allowed WSU to avoid an ominous marketplace, where the supply of quality options was limited and their risk level was significant.
Chance of vacancy: 0% (last week: 100%)
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