Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (5-7) and New York Giants (4-7) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 13 game at Hard Rock Stadium (1 p.m., FOX):
When the Dolphins run: The Dolphins are at least starting to utilize the run game enough where opponents have to respect it, which wasn’t previously the case. They had 33 and 39 rushing plays in the past two wins over the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers, respectively. Their yards-per-carry averages in those two games: 3.5 and 2.8. So, that could still use some work, but combined with an efficient short passing game, it’s been good enough.
Miami is still No. 31 in the NFL in rushing offense, with Myles Gaskin’s 482 rushing yards at 3.5 yards per carry leading the way. Maybe the addition of veteran former Pro Bowl back Phillip Lindsay starts to bring a spark. He already carried 12 times for 42 yards in his Dolphins’ debut off just one practice, one walkthrough and some additional work.
The Giants are 26th in the NFL in run defense at 127.7 yards per game allowed. They just surrendered 208 yards on the ground to the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, but about a third of that was to quarterback Jalen Hurts. Inside linebacker Tae Crowder leads New York with 79 tackles. Dolphins coach Brian Flores called defensive end Leonard Williams, who has 57 tackles in the Giants’ 3-4 front, “a major problem.” Edge: Giants
When the Giants run: The Dolphins have held opponents to a stout 84.4 rushing yards per game in the past seven outings. Only twice in that span has an opponent run for more than 100 yards as a team, and both were 102. Miami’s run defense, which started off as one of the worst, is now top 10, even with that horrid start.
On the other side, the Giants have been held below 100 yards rushing in six of their past eight games. They have the 26th-ranked run game in the NFL. Star running back Saquon Barkley has been back from his ankle injury for two weeks, but he’s been limited since, only getting 19 carries over the games against the Buccaneers and Eagles.
Beyond nose tackle Raekwon Davis’ impact since his return in earnest to the lineup, fellow defensive linemen Zach Sieler, Christian Wilkins and Emmanuel Ogbah have played the run well, and linebackers and safeties are tackling at the second level. Edge: Dolphins
When the Dolphins pass: Tua Tagovailoa has gone 54 of 64 (84.3%) for 503 yards, three touchdowns and one interception over the past two games, wins over the Jets and Panthers — the Panthers entering as the NFL’s top pass defense last Sunday. He’s done it without Will Fuller and DeVante Parker, but he could get Parker back as the 6-foot-3 receiver returned to practice this week. Rookie Jaylen Waddle is coming off a career game of nine receptions for 137 yards and a touchdown.
Cornerback James Bradberry is one of the top players in the NFL at his position. He has three interceptions this season, and second-year safety Xavier McKinney has five interceptions for the Giants’ 28th-ranked pass defense. Williams and outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari have 5 1/2 sacks apiece rushing the passer.
Something’s going to have to give between the Giants’ pass rush and Dolphins pass protection. According to ESPN, New York has the NFL’s worst pass-rush win rate, while Miami owns the league’s worst pass-block win rate. Edge: Even
When the Giants pass: The Giants’ quarterback situation was in flux most of the week until starter Daniel Jones was ruled out Friday due to a neck strain, so it will be veteran journeyman Mike Glennon making his first start for the Giants. Glennon is 6-21 in his career as a starter.
Rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney leads the Giants in receiving with 392 yards, but he was held out of practice early this week with oblique and quadriceps injuries, as has fellow wideout Sterling Shepard, who has 324 yards in five games. Big-bodied veteran receiver Kenny Golladay and tight end Evan Engram will have to be accounted for and be an emphasis of Miami’s game plan defensively. Barkley can also get active in the passing game.
The Dolphins have had 16 of their 28 sacks on the season come during this four-game winning streak, so they’re hitting their stride right now. Rookie Jaelan Phillips comes in off his career-best three-sack performance. Miami is tied for sixth in the NFL with 19 takeaways. The Dolphins led the league in forcing turnovers last year and have bounced back from a slow first half to the season in that department. Edge: Dolphins
Special teams: I’ve been going away from the Dolphins in this category in recent weeks because of kicker Jason Sanders’ misses, but with Miami’s ability to make game-changing plays like the Duke Riley blocked punt turned into a touchdown with Justin Coleman’s recovery, let’s go back Miami’s way here.
Missing an extra point on Sunday, Sanders has missed a kick in five of the past seven games and is 15 of 20 on field goals on the season. New York’s Graham Gano is 22 for 25 on field goals. Dolphins punter Michael Palardy has one of the lowest yards-per-punt averages in the NFL (44.2), but he’s No. 3 in the league in punts placed inside the 20 (21) as gunner Mack Hollins has offered plenty of support there. New York’s Riley Dixon’s punts go for a 45.3 average. Edge: Dolphins
Intangibles: The win streak, the home-field advantage, the tenacity Miami’s defense is playing with, Tagovailoa’s efficient play — it seems to all favor the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Giants are 1-4 on the road this season. They also are two weeks removed from parting ways with offensive coordinator Jason Garrett as Freddie Kitchens is now calling plays. New York defensive coordinator Pat Graham held the same position in Miami in 2019, so it will be interesting to see who has more information on the opposing coaching tendencies. Edge: Dolphins
PREDICTION: Dolphins 24, Giants 13
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